Global PV Installations To Grow Up To 21 Percent In 2012
Global solar PV installations will
grow by at least 3.5 percent and up to 21 percent in 2012, according to a new
report from IMS Research. The market analyst firm forecasts that despite
incentive cuts in most of the world's largest markets, global installations
will grow from 26.9 GW in 2011 to between 27.8 GW and 32.6 GW in 2012, with
Europe's share of installations falling from 69 percent last year to 50 percent
this year.
IMS Research's Q1'12 PV Demand
Database, which tracks installations in more than 60 countries, revealed that
new PV installations reached 26.9 GW in 2011 and its most-likely forecast shows
this growing to 27.8 GW this year. (Note that figures are for installations and
not grid connections; the figure for grid connections in 2011 would be much
higher.) Ash Sharma, Senior Research Director for Photovoltaics, commented,
"Despite many in the industry still expecting further doom and gloom, we in
fact see a pick-up in demand driven by falling system prices, a rush to beat incentive cuts, and the growing number
of mid-sized emerging PV markets."
The new report's "˜optimistic forecast'
shows installations growing by 21 percent to 32.6 GW this year. "It is no
longer a case of whether the PV market will grow in 2012, the real question now
is by how much will it grow," Sharma explained. "When you only consider a
handful of countries like Germany, Italy and France, it's easy be pessimistic
about demand; however, when you look further afield and analyse demand from 60
countries, the picture becomes much more positive.",.
According to the Q1'12 report, at
least 23 counties will install 100 MW or more this year, up from just 17 last
year. "It is this geographic diversification that will help drive growth in
global PV installations this year as the market becomes less dependent on just
one or two markets. Ultimately it will also lead to stability for the industry
in the longer term as the impact of a single country's policy will weaken,"
added Sharma.
Germany, however, is still predicted
to remain the largest and most important PV market this year and despite the
overhaul to its FiT policy, new installations are predicted to reach at least
six GW this year and up to 8.5 GW is even possible. Such a result would have
been almost unthinkable a few months back, but IMS Research found that demand
in Q1 was extremely high in a rush to beat the incoming changes.
Although Germany will remain the
largest market, IMS Research predicts that China will become the second
largest, followed closely by Italy. "China remains one of the most
unpredictable factors in the global supply and demand balance. With European
demand faltering, the Chinese government is under increased pressure to
accelerate domestic deployment to support its huge manufacturing base.
Installations of up to eight GW would be unlikely in China this year, but still
a possibility," concluded Sharma.
