IHS estimates strong growth in inverter market
"Solar Inverter Shipments to Exceed 10 GW in Q4 2013", says IHS Senior Solar Analyst, Cormac Gilligan
IHS estimates that a record of 9.9 GW of inverters were shipped in Q3'13, and shipments are forecast to grow further to exceed 10 GW for the first time in Q4'13 as the industry passes a new milestone.
Due to the rapid expansion of the Japanese and Chinese markets, 3 of the top 5 inverter suppliers in Q3'13 were from Japan or China.
Despite record inverter shipments in H2'13, inverter revenues are forecast to reach $3.5 billion, a decrease by 1% compared to H2'12 due to highly competitive pricing.
Inverter shipments for the second half of 2013 are forecast to increase by 21% over H2'12 to reach 20.8 GW which, driven by a surge in inverter shipments in USA, Japan and China. These 3 countries alone accounted for 64% of inverter shipments in H2'13 with USA and China enjoying the usual seasonal second half shipment surge. However, inverter shipments in EMEA are forecast to continue to decrease in H2'13 by 31% compared to a year previously. Shipments were mainly impacted by the continued decline in key PV markets such as Germany and Italy.
Due largely to Japan commanding the highest prices for inverters globally in 2013, its PV inverter market is forecast to reach over $1.7 billion in 2013. As a result, local inverter suppliers who have been able to maintain a strong presence in their domestic market have gained share of the global market rapidly, and Omron and Tabuchi have become the third and fourth largest suppliers by revenue in Q3'13.
The quarter also saw a Chinese supplier appear in the top-five for the first time, with Sungrow becoming the fifth largest supplier, due largely to a very strong quarter in its domestic market. SMA and Power-One remained the two largest suppliers once again in Q3'13, although their market shares both declined considerably compared to a year previously.
Although inverter shipments in H2'13 were up by over 20% compared to H2'12, revenues are estimated to have decreased 1% to $3.5 billion in the same periods. This was as a result of very competitive pricing globally with average global price declines of 17% in 2013. However, IHS notes that prices vary significantly between different regions with Japan attracting the highest average prices at $0.26/W, compared to $0.06/W in China in Q3'13.
IHS forecasts that inverter shipments will increase by 13% to reach a record 41GW in 2014 with revenues forecast to reach $1.8 billion.
