Large shortfall in European energy needs
38 GW of reliably available capacity are needed in the European system until 2020 in addition to the confirmed investments in generation in order to maintain the current adequacy levels. Depending on the penetration of variable generation to the overall energy mix, this could imply that the level of needed investments in installed capacity is significantly higher. ENTSO-E's Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF) 2013 released on 3 April 2013 shows that, under the European TSOs' best estimates of the load and generation evolution, generation adequacy will be maintained in 2020.
On 3 April 2013 ENTSO-E released the Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2013 (SO&AF) 2013-2030, which presents the scenarios to be used in the Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2014 (TYNDP) in compliance with Regulation (EC) n. 714/2009, and the assessment of the adequacy between generation and demand in the ENTSO-E interconnected power system until 2020.
Looking at longer time horizons and dealing with the number and level of uncertainties when quantifying the inputs constitute the major axes of improvement for the ENTSO-E TYNDPs. Therefore, SO&AF 2013 contains quantitative data on two Visions for 2030, providing a bridge between the EU energy targets in 2020 and 2050. Vision 1 ("Slow Progress") and Vision 3 ("Green Transition") are based on distinctively different assumptions; together with Visions 2 ("Money Rules") and 4 ("Green Revolution") they aim to provide the boundaries within which the actual future evolution of the system is expected to lie. The last two Visions will be quantified in SO&AF 2014 as part of the TYNDP 2014 package.
Regarding adequacy assessment, despite the lasting economic constraints experienced in Europe, the TSO "best estimate" foresees an approximate annual average load growth of 1% between 2013 and 2020, reaching a slightly higher load value in 2020 than that corresponding to the EU 20-20-20 policy goals, probably due to a different anticipation of energy efficiency measures. Compared to the same estimations made in the SO&AF 2012, the effect of the economic crisis has led to a revision of the reference load in the scenario by about 11GW and a slightly lower growth throughout the study period. The assumptions for 2030 Visions indicate a possible average annual growth rate in the following years ranging from 0% to 1%.
The total ENTSO-E Net Generating Capacity (NGC) is increasing in each scenario as well. Of all primary energy sources, the biggest development is reported for renewable energy sources (RES). Wind and solar generation are the main drivers of the expected installed RES capacity growth representing 51% and 28% of new installed capacity respectively. The fastest developing fossil fuel capacities are gas power units for each scenario.
Based on the "Best Estimate" Scenario, the SO&AF 2013 indicates that generation adequacy is expected to be maintained during the entire forecasted period until 2020, even after the expected shut down of German (and Swiss and Belgian) nuclear power plants. However, considering only confirmed generation investments, the level of adequacy becomes slightly negative "“ this may be further exacerbated in consideration of the impact of market conditions on existing generation. Furthermore, due to the high expected penetration of variable generation into the energy mix, complementary measures such as the ones described in the ENTSO-E network codes become even more urgently needed to ensure the balancing of the system in the most efficient manner for the consumer.
The SO&AF report is based on well-established methodologies to give timely and relevant information on the adequacy of the European power system. Nevertheless, these methodologies continuously evolve and ENTSO-E is committed to further investigation of aspects such as stochastic analyses on the influence of variable generation, and the impact of market conditions on existing generation infrastructure among others. A key success factor remains the close collaboration with all relevant actors, both in terms of expertise as well as for the provision of timely and reliable information.
